Dark stylish compass with needle pointing to the year number 2026
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

2026 Emerging Markets Outlook

Disinflation, not debasement points to 'goldilocks' in 2026

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Weekly investor research

Rising geopolitical risks, resilient EM equity performance

EM assets keep outperforming as US jobs data softens. Powell faces DOJ subpoena. Trump ordered Fannie/Freddie to buy $200bn MBS, pushing 30y yields down. Iran protests lifted oil; US shielded Venezuela funds; Argentina $3bn repo; Japan snap poll talk.
New 2026 year progress bar on digital lcd display.
Weekly investor research

Emerging Market assets start 2026 strong, Venezuela in focus

US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
Metropolitan Cathedral Mexico City
Weekly investor research

EM central banks ease as DM diverges: ECB on hold, BoJ tightens

ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.

Latest Insights

Emerging view
The Emerging View

Outlook for EM and global backdrop

Emerging Markets (EM) asset prices over-reacted to the downside in recent years, especially given that EM fundamentals held up far better than expected in the face of serious headwinds.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The Myth of EM FX pass-through

One of the common perceptions about EM is that inflation rises sharply when their currencies weaken.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Weak Dollar policy

The US economy is becoming seriously unproductive and the Trump Administration faces an important choice: support American business with heterodox policies such as import tariffs or abandon the strong Dollar policy?
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Trump and EM

The threat of protectionism is on the rise, nowhere more so than in the United States, the erstwhile bastion of free markets.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Border adjustment

President-elect Donald Trump is threatening US and foreign corporations with new taxes on a daily basis in a clear sign that the risk of US protectionism is rising.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The rational fear of policy mistakes

Lengthy and fevered speculation preceded yesterday’s “comprehensive reassessment” by the BOJ and the Fed’s September decision on interest rates.