EM assets keep outperforming as US jobs data softens. Powell faces DOJ subpoena. Trump ordered Fannie/Freddie to buy $200bn MBS, pushing 30y yields down. Iran protests lifted oil; US shielded Venezuela funds; Argentina $3bn repo; Japan snap poll talk.
US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.
Emerging Markets (EM) asset prices over-reacted to the downside in recent years, especially given that EM fundamentals held up far better than expected in the face of serious headwinds.
Six months ago we outlined the reasons for turning bullish on Emerging Markets local currency bonds for the first time since the Taper Tantrum of 2013.
The US economy is becoming seriously unproductive and the Trump Administration faces an important choice: support American business with heterodox policies such as import tariffs or abandon the strong Dollar policy?
President-elect Donald Trump is threatening US and foreign corporations with new taxes on a daily basis in a clear sign that the risk of US protectionism is rising.
Years of selective buying of Eurozone bonds by central banks and institutional investors has created a strong relative value proposition in favour of Emerging Markets (EM) EUR-denominated bonds.